With the U.S. presidential election just a week away, Canadians are feeling the weight of potential policy shifts that could impact Canada’s economy and energy sector. While more than 600,000 Americans residing in Canada are eligible to vote, Canadian citizens have no say in the outcome, despite potentially significant economic consequences.
Former U.S. ambassador to Canada, Bruce Heyman, highlighted the possible influence of American ex-pat votes, noting that while Canadian citizens cannot affect the election, votes from Americans in Canada could be pivotal in a close race. Both Democrats and Republicans have ramped up efforts to mobilize American voters in Canada, with predictions that voter turnout among this group may exceed the usual six to eight percent.
Diana Keto-Lambert from Democrats Abroad emphasized the importance of American votes in Canada for down-ballot races affecting Congress, while Georganne Burke of Republicans Overseas said interest in this election has surged among Americans in Canada who are eager to cast their ballots.
Canadian economic analysts express concern over each candidate’s policies. Kamala Harris’s strong environmental stance could challenge Alberta’s oil sector, yet political scientist Lisa Young from the University of Calgary suggests a Donald Trump administration may not favor Canadian oil either, given his past comments labeling oilsands as “dirty oil.”
Calgary Chamber of Commerce CEO Deborah Yedlin voiced significant worries about Trump’s protectionist promises, including potential 10% tariffs on Canadian exports, which she says would impact not only energy but nearly every Canadian industry. With 90% of Alberta’s exports heading south, the ramifications of new tariffs could be far-reaching, particularly for supply chains integral to both countries.
The looming 2026 renegotiation of the Canada-Mexico Free Trade Agreement (USMCA) adds to these uncertainties, as both Harris and Trump have expressed reservations about the deal. The stakes for Canada are high, as the election’s outcome could bring substantial shifts to cross-border trade and industry dynamics.