Indian cities will require over $2.4 trillion in investments by 2050 to counter the growing threats of floods, heatwaves, and climate-related disasters, according to a new World Bank report released on Tuesday. The study, titled “Towards Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India”, was prepared in collaboration with the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs and underscores the urgent need for resilient, low-carbon urban infrastructure to avoid significant future losses.
The report identifies Delhi, Chennai, Surat, and Lucknow among the most vulnerable cities due to rapid urban expansion into flood-prone and heat-sensitive areas. It warns that annual economic losses from rain-induced flooding, currently estimated at $4 billion, could rise to $5 billion by 2030 and escalate to as much as $30 billion by 2070 if corrective steps are not taken. It also highlights the growing risk of heat stress, citing a 71 percent rise in exposure to dangerous temperatures in India’s 10 largest cities between 1983 and 2016. If emissions remain unchecked, annual heat-related deaths could more than double, reaching over 328,000 by 2050. Additionally, high heat conditions could reduce working hours by 20 percent in major urban centers, potentially dragging down productivity. The report suggests that targeted heat mitigation strategies alone could raise India’s GDP by 0.4 percent and save up to 130,000 lives each year.
India’s urban population, which stood at 480 million in 2020, is projected to grow to 951 million by 2050 and exceed 1.1 billion by 2070. This expansion will require over 144 million new homes and a major scale-up in infrastructure for housing, public transport, waste management, and basic municipal services. However, the report notes that India currently spends just 0.7 percent of its GDP on urban infrastructure—far below international benchmarks.
Public financing alone will not suffice. The World Bank is calling for robust private sector participation through mechanisms like green bonds, blended finance, and international climate funds. It also recommends enhancing the financial independence of urban local bodies to help them plan and execute projects that attract investment.
The findings were supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, a global trust fund aiding countries in strengthening climate and disaster resilience. As World Bank Country Director Auguste Tano Kouame emphasized, the path forward is not just a challenge but a major opportunity for India to shape a safer, more prosperous urban future.