The Greater Toronto Area’s new home market has entered uncharted territory, with sales levels now sitting even lower than during the housing downturn of the 1990s. Data released by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) shows that July saw only 359 new home transactions — a 48% drop from the same month last year and 82% below the 10-year average of nearly 2,000 sales.
The slowdown is hitting every corner of the market, but condominium sales have been hit the hardest. Just 150 condo units changed hands in July, marking an 89% decline compared to the decade average. The single-family segment, which includes detached, semi-detached, and traditional townhomes, fared slightly better with 209 sales but was still down 60% from historical norms.
This dramatic slowdown has caused available inventory to swell to unprecedented levels. By the end of July, 22,654 new units were on the market, including more than 16,600 condos and nearly 6,000 single-family homes. At current sales rates, this represents 20 months of supply, the highest level ever recorded in the region.
Industry leaders warn that without government intervention, the GTA could face years of stagnation similar to the prolonged recovery seen after the ‘90s slump. Justin Sherwood, BILD’s Senior Vice President, stressed that the situation is already flashing warning signals for policymakers. He emphasized that failing to act now could deepen the economic pain and slow the development of much-needed housing supply.
Despite sluggish sales, pricing has shown mixed movement. The benchmark price for new condominium apartments held steady over the past year at roughly $1.03 million, while new single-family homes saw a 6.1% price decline, dropping to an average of $1.49 million. For buyers, the combination of high prices, elevated interest rates, and economic uncertainty continues to create a market defined by caution, even as inventory reaches historic highs.