Donald Trump, the U.S. president-elect, has stirred international and domestic headlines with bold threats of tariffs on Canadian exports and provocative comments about Canada’s sovereignty. From labeling Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “governor” to jokingly calling Canada the “51st state,” Trump’s approach is widely seen as part of his characteristic negotiating strategy aimed at reshaping North American trade dynamics.
A Strategy Rooted in Leverage
Trump’s threats of imposing a 25% tariff on all goods entering the U.S. from Canada and Mexico reflect his long-standing approach to negotiation, characterized by leveraging unpredictability and pressure to extract concessions. According to former advisers and analysts, Trump’s tactics are designed to secure more favorable terms in trade agreements, particularly the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which is up for renewal in 2026.
Stephen Moore, a senior economist and former adviser to Trump, noted that while tariffs might harm the economy, Trump uses them as tools to prioritize U.S. national and economic interests. “He wants to make sure trade deals are fair for American workers and companies,” Moore explained, pointing to the strategy’s success during Trump’s first term, including the renegotiation of NAFTA into CUSMA.
Historical Echoes: Tariffs and Taunts in 2018
Trump’s recent moves mirror his approach during the 2018 CUSMA negotiations when he imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, threatened auto export duties, and described Trudeau as “very dishonest and weak.” Analysts believe Trump’s latest threats similarly aim to weaken Canada’s position by exploiting perceived vulnerabilities in Trudeau’s leadership.
Eugene B. Kogan, a negotiation expert at Harvard, described Trump’s style as “ruthlessly rational,” with a focus on exploiting opponents’ weaknesses. Kogan suggested that Trump sees Trudeau’s political struggles at home as an opportunity to maximize U.S. leverage.
Broader Objectives Beyond Tariffs
While Trump cites concerns over drug trafficking and illegal migration as reasons for the proposed tariffs, many believe his goals extend beyond these issues. A senior Canadian official revealed that Trump has repeatedly voiced concerns about the U.S. trade deficit with Canada, which stood at $75 billion in 2023, largely due to record-high crude oil imports from Canada.
Trump’s overarching ambition, according to advisers, is to position North America as the world’s leading geopolitical and energy powerhouse. By leveraging trade negotiations and regional relationships, he aims to counter global rivals like China and Russia.
Provocations as a Negotiating Tool
Trump’s social media comments, including his suggestion that hockey legend Wayne Gretzky run for Canadian prime minister, underscore his use of provocative rhetoric to unsettle opponents. Experts argue this “win-lose” approach forces adversaries to respond under pressure, ultimately tilting negotiations in Trump’s favor.
Despite the controversial nature of Trump’s strategies, supporters argue that his hardline tactics are deliberate and calculated. “He knows what levers to pull,” an unnamed transition official stated, emphasizing the strategic coherence of his actions.
The Road Ahead
As Trudeau’s cabinet works to navigate Trump’s tariff threats and broader trade agenda, the future of Canada-U.S. relations hangs in the balance. While Trump’s endgame remains unclear, it is evident that his tactics aim to redefine the dynamics of North American trade and leverage regional alliances to bolster U.S. interests. Whether Canada can effectively counter Trump’s high-stakes strategy will shape the trajectory of bilateral relations in the years to come.